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The Blob-O-Weather off of FL's Space Coast is looking a tad more tropically serious this morning and an Air Force reserve hurricane hunter plane is scheduled to take a look later today. As of now, it appears that it will continue a slow drift south today and tomorrow start moving West or even WNW before a gradual turn to the NE. Rapid intensification is not out of the realm of possibilities so keep your heads up.

Sweet shot Terri.. big Lake O' just topped off 10' yesterday maybe that blob could drift over the lake and unload.. we need water

Thanks Terri! I forgot it was Hurricane season, because there hasn't been any mention since Arlene. That reminds me!.... I need to pickup some spare ammo and toilet paper for the emergency kit!

You can see this thing on the long range Melbourne radar HERE.

NHC has now given this a 40% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. The recon plane is almost there.

We now have a Tropical Depression. Recon is still in there and it very well could be Tropical Storm Bret already.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
2100 UTC SUN JUL 17 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 78.2W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 78.2W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 78.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 27.4N 78.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 28.2N 77.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.0N 77.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.4N 76.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 32.0N 73.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 34.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 36.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 78.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART

As expected, the TD has been upgraded to TS Bret. It may meander around a bit before heading NE. Unfortunately, Bret should cause us in Central and West Central FL to have LESS rain over the next few days.

5:00am Update from the NHC

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.7 WEST. BRET IS MOVING TOWARD
THE EAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF BRET WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER
TODAY.

DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS
1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

The wind has increased and it's a fairly good looking tropical cyclone. Too bad it's not crossing Florida and bringing us a ton of rain.

Wave bye-bye to Bret as he is picking up steam and heading off to the NE.

And you completely ignored poor Cindy.